IHS Market predicts that global PV installations will reach 129 GW in 2019, with an increase of 25%. In 2019, countries with high GDP will have new demand for installing, such as Spain, the United States, Vietnam, India, Japan, and Australia. Spain especially will be the largest PV growth point in the European market.
The variation tendency of the top ten markets’ share
As IHS predicted, the top ten PV markets in 2019 are China (35%), the United States (10%), India (10%), Japan (5%), Australia (5%), Spain (4%), Mexico (2%), Vietnam (2%), Germany (2%) and France (2%).
IHS has divided the global PV market into three major categories, namely household use, commercial use, and large ground power station. In general, large ground power stations still account for about 60%, while the commercial use and the household use are basically 40%, of which 30% is the former and 10% is the latter. On the whole, nearly 80% of ground power stations in India are large-scale. China has begun to change the large ground power station into the distributed ones. As for Europe, the proportion of large-scale projects and commercial projects is relatively average, while the rest is for household use.
Bidding is the main driving force for the development of large ground power stations
Bidding is currently the most important factor in driving demand for large ground power stations. The combination of bidding and FiT is the most important part of promoting large-scale projects. The second part is the development model superimposed by PPA and other policies, especially the markets in the US and Australia.
China has the largest bidding market. Both the FiT policy and the leader plan have promoted the rapid development of large ground power plants here. India has the second largest bidding market, with a constantly changing price. The bidding price in 2018 has become one-sixth of the ones in 2010. So, the bidding is the most important stimulus for the bidding project of large ground power plants. The main projects in the United States and Australia are PPA, and nearly 85% of the global PPA projects which have been completed are in the United States.
The affection from structural changes in demand to product selection
Hu Dan pointed out that structural changes in demand will affect the selection of the product. In terms of cost, cost and price stimulate demand. Since the first quarter of 2014, the cost of the leading components in the market has fallen by more than 60%.
Under the export data of the component in 2017 and 2018, the changes in regional demand are obvious. In 2017, it mainly focused on India, and in 2018 it turned to Latin America. In the second half of 2018, India itself has seen a major decline, especially in the third quarter.
Market demand in Latin America is divided into three categories while the demand for large-scale ground power stations is growing rapidly. Since the first quarter of 2018, the export of components in China has increased significantly. In 2017, the market is still dominated by products with 300-watt. After 2018, the demand for 320-350 watt high power components will increase considerably.
As for inverters, IHS believes that the market for the 1500V ones will increase greatly in 2017 and 2018, and it will become the mainstream of high-power inverters. Historically, it is not the first time for the inverter market to increase power. As early as the German market became the global largest PV market, there has been a shift in demand from less than 1000V to 1000V in 2010.