Let’s See the Outlook of Global Photovoltaic (PV) Market!
By PV Committee
The global installed capacity has increased 102 GW in 2017 with year-on-year growth of 33.7%. Among which, China accounted for more than 50% with the capacity of 53 GW, being leader all over the world continuously. At the same time, India looks set to become the second largest market beyond the US. What’s more, new emerging countries, such as Mexico and Brazil have achieved a high speed growth. It’s expected that the global installed capacity will maintain the sustained and stable growth from 2018 to 2020 with an increase of 5-10%.
America: Installed Speed Slows down Due to the Trade Protection Policy
In anticipation of US Section 201, demand for photovoltaic was further increased in 2017. In addition, the new installed capacity will maintain at 11 GW, accompanied with the diversification of installed projects and promotion of communities’ solar system projects.
On the other hand, China’s export dependence on the US had decreased because of the limitation of US Section 201. Chinese shifted the export of photovoltaic products to some new emerging countries so that the export share to America was less than 5% in 2017.
Japan: Affected by Policies, Capacity Growth may Slow down
Constant subsidy adjustment of Japanese market had caused a slowing demand of installed capacity and affected the new added PV power station. Japan had added about a capacity of 7 GW in 2017, while decreasing 24% compared with last year. The capacity increased is limited within 7 GW in 2018.
Europe: The Overall Demands are Steadily Increasing
Under the guidance of policies and fund, quite a few European countries’ installed capacity, such as German and Italy, had reached a summit from 2003 to 2011. Accompanied with the outbreak of the European debt crisis and market decline, the European Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) subsidize prices had declined from 0.57 euro/kWh in 2004 to 0.12 in 2014. Nevertheless, the total capacity added in 2017 of five countries—Turkey, German, England, Holland and France—is up to two third while the fall of components’ prices may give rise to demand increased. It’s expected that there will be 11 GW capacity added, with an year-on-year increase of 20%.
The Latin America’s PV Market has Taken off; While the North Africa has Huge Potential
The Special Program for the Use of Renewable Energies, issued by Mexico government, illustrated that power installed capacity of renewable energy must be increased exactly; while Brazil has released Ten Years of Energy Expansion Plan (PDE2016), which is expected to achieve an amount of capacity over 13 GW. However, the total installed capacity in North Africa is less than 3.4 GW with the annual solar radiation of 2000-3000 kWh per square meter, accounting for only 1% worldwide. Therefore, it’s hopeful that the North Africa has huge potential.
India: 2022 will Witness 100GW Installed Capacity
There are two reasons that PV becomes the best choice in India. One is the abundant light resource. There are over 2000 hours of light per year in India with lower PV cost. The other is the strong demand for electricity. The annual per capita electricity consumption in India in 2017 reached 1122kwh, only equivalent to one third that of worldwide individuals. So, nearly 240 million people have little electricity and the annual average power deficit accounts for about 13%. It’s estimated that the total demand of India electricity market will maintain a compound growth rate of 5% from 2018 to 2040, reaching the amount of 3288TWh in 2040.
India’s expected capacity of 11 GW sparks hopes of being the second largest PV markets all round the world and accumulating to 100 GW in 2020. Furthermore, India relies heavily on imports form China because of the limitation of local productivity. For example, the installed capacity in 2017 was 10 GW among which above 90% subassemblies rely on imports that 80% from China.
As we can see, China has a large PV market with a promising future. In such a condition, PV Guangzhou 2018 will be held on August 16th-18th. If you are interested in presenting your products or accessing to Chinese market, don’t hesitate to join us. Welcome to contact us!